Atomic Arbitrage - Likely

Arbitrage is the lifeblood of an efficient market. It ensures that prices across different prediction platforms stay in sync. On traditional exchanges, arbitrage is risky because one “leg” of the trade might fill while the other doesn’t. Likely solves this through Atomic Execution.

The Risk-Free Edge

When you use a Likely bundle, your arbitrage becomes a single, unbreakable transaction.

Step	Action	The Atomic Guarantee
1	Buy on Market A	If this fails, the bundle stops.
2	Sell on Market B	If this fails, Step 1 is undone (rolled back).
3	Split/Merge	Consolidate your profit in USDC instantly.

Result: You either book the profit, or you are left exactly where you started (minus a tiny anti-spam fee).

Arbitrage Types on Likely

Type	Strategy	Why it works
Inter-Market	Buy in Market A, Sell in Market B	Prices for the same event are different across pairs.
Geometric	YES ( $0.60) + NO ($ 0.45) = $1.05	Prices sum to > $1.00; Split and sell both for profit.
Cross-Platform	Likely vs. Polymarket	Capture discrepancies between Likely’s batch auctions and external markets.

Privacy as a Shield

On platforms like Polymarket, arbitrageurs are often “hunted” bots watch their wallets and trade ahead of them (front-running). On Likely, you are private.

No Profile Leaks: Your identity and trading history aren’t public.
Batch Auctions: Because everyone executes at once, no one can see your trade and “jump” in front of it during the auction.

The Scalable Arbitrageur

Because a single bundle can contain 256 operations, you can execute massive, complex arbitrage strategies across dozens of markets in a single half-second window. This makes Likely the most powerful platform for sophisticated liquidity providers.

Next Steps