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Likely is a new kind of prediction market where fairness and safety are built into the code. Instead of a chaotic race where the fastest computers win, Likely uses a structured Auction Window to process trades fairly.

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The Core Difference

Traditional markets are like a sprint - the person with the fastest server always wins. Likely is like an envelope auction - everyone has 500ms to submit their best offer.

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The 500ms Auction Window

Every half-second, Likely closes an auction and opens a new one. This 500ms window is your time to strategize.
  1. Submit: You send a Bundle (a package of one or more trades).
  2. Wait: Your bundle sits in the current window with everyone else’s.
  3. Compete: If the market moves, you can “Bribe” (increase your tip) to get higher priority.
  4. Execute: When the window closes, the exchange processes the best bundles first.

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The YES/NO Model

Predictions on Likely are traded as shares. Every contract has a YES side and a NO side. The Golden Rule: YES + NO always equals $1.00. This means you can Split $1.00 into a YES and a NO share anytime, or Merge them back into cash. This keeps the market efficient and allows for risk-free pricing.

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Real-World Case: The Arbitrage

Imagine Alice sees that YES shares are trading at 0.60inParisand0.60 in Paris and 0.65 in London. She wants to buy in Paris and sell in London to make a $0.05 profit.
  • On a traditional market: She buys in Paris, but before she can sell in London, the price moves. She’s now stuck with shares she didn’t want.
  • On Likely: She puts both trades in one Atomic Bundle. If the London trade can’t happen, the Paris trade is automatically canceled. Her capital remains safe.

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Priority & Tips

Because many people might want the same trade, the exchange uses a Tip system to decide who goes first.
  • Highest Tip (The Winner): Moves to the front of the line but only pays the second-highest tip amount. This is called a “Second-Price Auction,” and it ensures you never overpay for being first.
  • Other Successes: You pay the tip you declared if your trade is matched.
  • Fail / Not Selected: If your tip was too low or your trade fails (e.g., the price moved), you pay a 10% anti-spam tax on your tip.

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Capital that Works

Unlike other platforms where your money just sits there, Likely supports Ethena USDe. This is the ultimate capital efficiency for an exchange that doesn’t offer leverage.

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Why No Leverage?

In a prediction market, leverage is often a “suicide mission.” There are no reliable price oracles for instant liquidations, and traditional liquidity isn’t deep enough to handle cascaded liquidations during volatility. Furthermore, prediction shares are already “over-leveraged” by their very design. Likely focuses on making your actual capital work harder through yield and efficiency, rather than offering dangerous borrowed power.

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Next Steps